2018 EDV was 105 11/2018 so it did go up massively to 175 (7/31/2020) but down now to 81 range and I don’t think the dividends made up the difference.
2) in 2020 long-term treasuries were up massively, like 25%
Yes they went down in 2022 because rates rose. If you needed money in 2022 you should have had it in long-term treasuries.
30 year rates 11/2018 were 3.39% and are 4.06% now, down somewhat from the peak 5.04% 10/2023 but looking very good for the past 10 years, not so much for the past 30 years (can find the data on the FRED website from the federal reserve:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/dgs30
Bill Bernstein had written the long term bond is a bet on interest rates before, and seems true to me. If rates cut again could make large profits with equity like shifts of 25-50% up in a year (and vice versa for rates rising).
I still don’t think long term nominal bonds are a great buy and hold for decades but could be great for market timers, even those who do it once every 3-5 years. EDV could 1.5x your money in 1-2 years but I’m not sure how great it is for buy and hold x decades and rebalance periodically.
Statistics: Posted by er999 — Fri Sep 06, 2024 12:20 am