Have you tried portfoliovisualizer "financial goals" model, or the RPM spreadsheet?I retired in Mar 2021 at age 55. I have the firecalc historical model and a monte carlo model built into my spreadsheet. Our current retirement balance is exactly what I forecast in Mar 2021. Income and expenses have matched inflation. My straight line model indicates we are exactly on the forecast line. My TPAW model indicates we can spend exactly what was forecast in Mar 2021. But my probability of success from fireclac and monte carlo have gone down from 100% to 95%. I do update the length of the firecalc and monte carlo models each year and reduce the length by a year. So right now, they are using 27 years vs. 30 years. I did some digging into the firecalc data, and there were no failures in my Mar 2021 run. Now there are 5. 4 of the 5 failures occur @ 27 years. One (1969) occurs in 19 years. In Mar 2021, my Ps for both firecalc and monte carlo was 100%. Not the Ps is 95.6% for both. I find that interesting. I think if I were trying to decide to retire today, I probably still would. Just interesting how sensitive the numbers can be. I like using TPAW for my how's it going data.
Statistics: Posted by chassis — Sat Sep 28, 2024 9:41 pm